SEEDS partner ENFOR has reached a new stage in its forecasting activities, with improved solar and load forecasting capabilities now being delivered for the Danish pilot.

The latest developments address several practical challenges involved in predicting renewable energy generation and electricity demand. These include making better use of satellite observations, working with incomplete information about photovoltaic installations, validating incoming power measurements and combining different sources of operational data.

Together, these improvements strengthen the forecasting capabilities being developed and applied within the Danish pilot.

Bringing satellite nowcasts into solar forecasting

One of ENFOR’s latest developments is the integration of satellite-measured irradiance nowcasts into its solar forecasting approach.

By incorporating this information, ENFOR aims to improve the accuracy of solar forecasts over the next few hours. Satellite observations provide valuable information about irradiance conditions, while nowcasts offer an additional source of information for short-term predictions.

These data also serve another purpose: helping assess the quality of power measurements.

In particular, nowcasts can support the validation of SCADA data that arrives before corresponding satellite observations are available. This helps identify potential data quality issues and safeguard the measurements used to train power curves.

Making PV models more adaptable to real-world data

Forecasting solar generation also depends on the information available about each installation. However, details such as panel orientation, inclination and installed capacity may be incomplete for some solar parks.

To address this challenge, ENFOR has developed a new photovoltaic (PV) model that can better handle missing installation information.

The model also accounts for weather conditions such as snow and fog, which can influence solar generation. This provides a more adaptable approach to modelling PV systems when both installation details and external conditions need to be considered.

Improving the picture of electricity demand

ENFOR’s work also extends to the load forecasting side of the Danish pilot.

An important challenge is estimating electricity generation from behind-the-meter renewable installations, such as wind turbines and PV systems, when direct production measurements are not available.

ENFOR has improved its estimates of this generation, helping account for renewable electricity produced locally but not directly measured.

The forecasting process can now also combine settlement data with real-time Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) measurements. Bringing these sources together provides additional information for estimating and forecasting electricity loads.

Strengthening forecasting capabilities within SEEDS

The latest developments demonstrate how ENFOR is addressing different data and modelling challenges within the Danish pilot.

From satellite-based irradiance nowcasts and improved power measurement validation to more adaptable PV models and enhanced load estimation, the work covers several stages of the forecasting process.

By improving how data is assessed, interpreted and combined, ENFOR is advancing the solar and load forecasting capabilities being delivered for the SEEDS Danish pilot.

These developments contribute to the project’s wider work on smarter energy systems and the use of data-driven approaches to support energy management.